Association Between School Closure and Neighborhood Firearm Violence: Evidence from Chicago and Implications for Prevention

BACKGROUND: Firearm violence remains a leading cause of death in the US, yet the neighborhood consequences of large-scale public school closures are poorly understood. We evaluated whether Chicago's 2013 closure of 49 public elementary schools was associated with subsequent firearm violence in surrounding communities.

STUDY DESIGN: Chicago Police Department shooting data (2010-2024) were geocoded using ArcGIS and linked with Census-derived neighborhood covariates. Census tracts with centroids within 0.5 miles of a closed school were classified as exposed. Shooting trends were compared within and outside the exposure radius, and difference-in-differences Poisson regression evaluated post-closure changes for all-age and youth victims, stratified by schools that reopened (n=32) versus those remaining vacant (n=17).

RESULTS: Among 47,112 shootings, neighborhoods outside the exposure radius experienced stable shooting rates (1.7 to 1.5 per 1,000 population, 2010-2024). Rates increased from 2.5 to 3.1 per 1,000 near schools that reopened and from 3.0 to 4.7 per 1,000 near schools that remained vacant. Post-closure increases were greater within exposed neighborhoods (reopened schools: IRR 1.17, p=0.009; persistently vacant schools: IRR 1.51, p<0.001). Among youth, associations were strongest near persistently vacant schools (IRR 2.00, p<0.001), whereas increases near reopened schools were not statistically significant (IRR 1.18, p=0.122).

CONCLUSIONS: The 2013 mass closure of Chicago public elementary schools was associated with increased neighborhood firearm violence, particularly where school buildings remained vacant. These findings suggest that long-term school vacancy may contribute to community firearm violence and should be considered in education and urban policy decisions.