Cardiovascular health trajectories from age 2–12: a pediatric electronic health record study

Purpose: Many children have non-ideal cardiovascular health (CVH), but little is known about the course of CVH in early childhood. We identified CVH trajectories in children and assess the generalizability of these trajectories in an external sample. Methods: We used data spanning 2010–2018 from children aged 2–12 years within the Chicago Area Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Network—an electronic health record network. Four clinical systems comprised the derivation sample and a fifth the validation sample. Body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose were categorized as ideal, intermediate, and poor using clinical measurements, laboratory readings, and International Classification of Diseases diagnosis codes and summed for an overall CVH score. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to create CVH score trajectories which were assessed for classification accuracy in the validation sample. Results: Using data from 122,363 children (47% female, 47% non-Hispanic White) three trajectories were identified: 59.5% maintained high levels of clinical CVH, 23.4% had high levels of CVH that declined, and 17.1% had intermediate levels of CVH that further declined with age. A similar classification emerged when the trajectories were fitted in the validation sample. Conclusions: Stratification of CVH was present by age 2, implicating the need for early life and preconception prevention strategies.