Epidemiology and prognostic factors of pediatric brain tumor survival in the US: Evidence from four decades of population data

Brain tumors, a group of heterogeneous diseases, are the second most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in children. Insight into the prognosis of pediatric brain tumor survival has led to improved outcomes and could be further advanced through precision in prognosis. We analyzed the United States SEER population-based dataset of 15,723 pediatric brain tumor patients diagnosed and followed between 1975 and 2016 using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model. Mortality risk declined with increased age at diagnosis, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) (95 % confidence interval) was 0.60 (0.55, 0.67) and 0.47 (0.42, 0.52) for ages at diagnosis 1–10 years and 10−19 years, respectively, when compared with infants. Non-Hispanic Caucasian patients showed a lower risk of mortality than non-Hispanic African Americans (1.21 (1.11, 1.32)) and Hispanics (1.21 (1.11, 1.32)). Primary tumor sites, grades, and histology showed substantial heterogeneity in mortality risk. Brainstem (2.62 (2.41, 2.85)) and Cerebrum (1.63 (1.46, 1.81)) had an elevated risk of mortality than lobes. Similarly, Grade II (1.32 (1.07, 1.62)), Grade III (3.39 (2.74, 4.19)), and Grade IV (2.18 (1.80, 2.64)) showed an inflated risk of mortality than Grade I. Compared to low-grade glioma, high-grade glioma (7.92 (7.09, 8.85)), Primitive neuroectodermal tumors (4.72 (4.15, 5.37)), Medulloblastoma (3.11 (2.79, 3.47)), and Ependymal-tumors (2.20 (1.95, 2.48)) had increased risk of mortality. County-level poverty and geographic region showed substantial variation in survival. This large population-based comprehensive study confirmed identified prognostic factors of pediatric brain tumor survival and provided estimates as epidemiologic evidence with greater generalization.