Identifying HbA1c trajectories and modifiable risk factors of trajectories in 5- to 9-year-olds with recent-onset type 1 diabetes from the United States

Objective: To explore glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) patterns in 5- to 9-year-olds in the recent-onset period of type 1 diabetes and identify parent psychosocial factors that may predict children's HbA1c trajectory using a prospective, longitudinal design. Research design and methods: We measured family demographics and parent psychosocial factors at baseline. We collected HbA1c levels from children every 3 months for up to 30 months. Deriving several features around HbA1c trends, we used k-means clustering to group trajectories and linear and logistic regressions to identify parent psychosocial predictors of children's HbA1c trajectories. Results: The final cohort included 106 families (48 boys, mean child age 7.50 ± 1.35 years and mean diabetes duration 4.71 ± 3.19 months). We identified four unique HbA1c trajectories in children: high increasing, high stable, intermediate increasing and low stable. Compared to a low stable trajectory, increasing parent-reported hypoglycaemia fear total score was associated with decreased odds of having a high stable or intermediate increasing trajectory. Increasing parent-reported diabetes-specific family conflict total score was associated with increased odds of having a high stable or intermediate increasing trajectory. Conclusions: We are the first to identify distinct HbA1c trajectories in 5- to 9-year-olds with recent-onset type 1 diabetes as well as parent psychosocial factors that may predict high stable or increasing trajectories and could represent future treatment targets.